Arrangee govt, not option for Zimbabwe
By NKECHI NWOSU
AFRICA'S troubled states, surprisingly, in recent times have been stricken
with a craze for an alien political delicacy: the unity government. But the
various experiments so far have left doubts such coerced alliance, holds the
ace to ending political squabbles among the various parties, opposition and
rebel factions inclusive. They have been fraught with deceit and pretences
and hence wobbly implementation of decisions and promises reached at such
peace deal talks. But the appetite for this budding political impasse resolution
option, unfortunately has continued to grow in the continent where it lacked
the enabling environment.
Even Zimbabwe, whose life strongman Robert Mugabe is averse to alien cultures
and their hybrids, since the run-off presidential polls boycotted by the opposition,
has been tinkering with the option that never insured the much-canvassed peace
anywhere in the continent before now. But more amazing really is the observation
that African nations and the larger international community are optimistic
a unity government could be arranged between Zimbabwe's ruling party and the
opposition. Tales within Zimbabwe point to the contrary. Pitiable as the case
may seem, the consolation in the whole efforts is that at least one fact has
been established: the election was flawed, else, the country's leadership
accused of hijacking the presidential mandate would not have succumbed to
talks with the opposition.
Though African leaders, with promptings from the international community is
pushing a deal that could reunite all the aggrieved parties, and reposition
the sapped Zimbabwean economy on the path of growth, achieving an enabling
environment for this governance experiment, in Harare definitely appears an
uphill task. When talks in the country held in July were not yielding desired
result, Southern Africa's peace mediator President Thabo Mbeki invited them
over to South Africa. Yet no dice. The Zimbabwean politicians, sadly, missed
the last window for peace offered by the recent summit of Southern African
Development Community (SADC) leaders in Johannesburg, as the rival parties
failed to reach a power-sharing deal. The rare chance was not supposed to
be time for games but witty negotiation. But the opposition blew the good
chance with its dribble which appeared too weak for catching a tortoise. Movement
for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai at the summit raised the stakes
for peace when he tossed the carrot by conceding presidency to Robert Mugabe
while opting for premiership. But simultaneously pulling the cane at the veteran
guerrilla leader who opposition wished to castrate of executive powers was
pushing their luck too far. Of course, Mugabe, any day, would go to war rather
than shed much of the powers currently attached to the office of the president
of the land. The executive powers are the major pecks why Mugabe has remained
glued to the now disputed seat in the past 28years. So, as long as that clause
of titular leadership remains in the opposition peace proposal, then the deal
is a joke too grave for the independence hero.
In an ideal situation, the prime minister forms the government. And in the
Zimbabwean case, the opposition with parliamentary majority should call the
shots and would work better if liaising with the prime minister as head of
government. Consequently, when the unity deal is done, Tsvangirai, not Mugabe
should be the man to form the new government.
But now, there is unilateral decision playing out in Harare. Mugabe alone
has inaugurated the parliament drawing jeers from MDC members of parliament
and compounding his anger. For once Mugabe was deeply devastated as the expression
on his face showed after only the ZANU-PF MPs seated to left of the parliament
building stood up to herald his entry. Then there was intermittent interruption
of his speech with such distasteful yell as "Zanu-PF is rotting,"
“"Yes, you are murderers” and “You killed people, we
know that," and "We are together in the struggle, no amount of beatings
and killings will deter us," from MDC lawmakers. The harassment came
despite the MDC chairman Lovemore Moyo was elected speaker of parliament.
Apparently nervous, Mugabe at a point accidentally knocked down the microphone.
This, definitely is a launch of a very long trouble capable of given even
the most die-hard leader sleepless tenure.
While trying to keep hope on Zimbabwe alive, an x-ray of Africa has indicated
that in all past experiments, the unity government remained disasters as they
ushered and sustained the chaos instead of fanning peace among the erstwhile
rival parties. Memories of the Sudan example of power-sharing between the
Omar El-Bashir and the Southern territory's leader John Garang who was short-changed
by a mysterious plane crash that cleared him off the power struggle scene
remains fresh. Full details of the findings of an alleged probe of Garang's
death remains shrouded in secrecy. And ever since then, Bashir's domineering
position has firmed and the plight of the Southern Sudanese compounded.
In Somalia, a series of unity government talks failed to yield any respite.
The Islamist factions remained on rampage and the fragile interim government
backed by the United Nations (UN) is gasping for breath. Blood of a UN envoy
mediating the peace in the country was spilled, and perhaps temporarily drawing
the curtains on negotiations. Now, the African Union (AU) apparently losing
peace focus clamours for UN force in Mogadishu instead.
Another power-sharing government tottering along is Kenya's. It followed the
bloody post-election violence early this year, after the opposition led by
Raila Odinga Odinga alleged hijack of its poll victory by President Mwai Kibaki.
Both men had in the past worked together but now they are merely tagging along
as they strive to allow national interest override their personal power stakes.
But the country's foreign minister in his smart sales would want the international
community believe its all smooth back in Nairobi's power house.
The same experience is unveiling in the Democratic Republic of Congo where
youthful Joseph Kabila is still learning the politics ropes on sharing the
national odds and not essentially goodies with the opposition. The Cote d'Ivoire's
case is an awardwinning scandal. President Laurent Gbagbo buying time, has
muscled efforts at fostering unity government by engineering the postponement
of blueprints drawn following talks with the opposition. The delays in the
implementation of the disarmament clause and a breach of truce deal earned
for him postponement of presidential elections date for a third time on the
orders of the UN. There must be an election before portfolios can be shared
among rivalry parties.
In Zimbabwe, the controversial March election was won by the opposition leader
Tsvangirai though without the constitutionally approved 50 per cent mark,
hence the second vote. After the deadlocked SADC talks, Mbeki said negotiations
would continue, but that it might "be necessary to convene parliament."
He also stressed an urgent need for an inclusive government. But as Mugabe
inaugurated the parliament, he spoke of forming government, a signal that
he had lost interest in further dialogue.
Tsvangirai who wants a powerful prime ministerial role, is prepared to share
cabinet posts with members of Zanu-PF, but demands that the ministers be answerable
to him rather than Mugabe. But indication is that Mugabe has refused to concede
the demand. Also, while the opposition seeks justice, most Mugabe's aides,
especially the security chief who have sworn to die for the President want
a blanket amnesty.
At the SADC meeting despised Mugabe joined regional leaders at the high table.
Tsvangirai who sat on the floor with other invited guests had told the New
York Times there were limits to the compromises he could make.He said: “It's
better not to have a deal than to have a bad deal."
Meanwhile the delay in ironing out the crucial unity issues to lure international
favours has seen the pains of inflation and abject poverty worsen in Zimbabwe,
but the MDC supporters who are badly hit refuse to be intimidated by their
condition. Official figures show rate of inflation in Zimbabwe jumped to just
over 11,250,000per cent in June from the May level of 2,233,713.4per cent"
the Central Statistical Office (CSO) said. But experts say it may be higher.
Unemployment rate ifs towering at almost 80per cent, Activities have been
grounded at most manufacturing and basic foods in short supply. Hyperinflation
remains after Mugabe's government allegedly printed much money to fund his
election campaign and prop up the economy. Thus month-to-month, inflation
has accelerated to 839.3per cent from 433.4per cent. Furthermore, the Zimbabwean
dollar which in June exchanged ten billion to the American dollar is now at
trillion to one ratio. Zimbabwe aiming to slow down the inflationary trends
has just frozen wages and prices for six months. From the foregoing, obviously
Zimbabwe is finished unless there are urgent united strides by all parties
to reverse the trends.
"Mbeki has cautioned that unless all parties agree, Zimbabwe peace will
be short-lived. "It won't last unless it's a common product that is owned
by this entire collective of the leadership of Zimbabwe," he said.
While the SADC summit moved the negotiation forward, definitely opposition
attempt on Mugabe's presidential corridors was a time-bomb that has shattered
the whole peace efforts. And Mugabe's taps all along since talks commenced,
tell that he never intends to share with opposition, no matter the strength
of the international community's coercion. Mugabe gave the opposition MDC
last week Thursday as deadline to sign a power-sharing deal, else he would
form his own government.
"We feel frozen at the moment [without a government]," the president
reportedly said. "We are a government and we are government that is empowered
by elections. We should form a cabinet. We would not allow a situation where
we will not have a cabinet forever," he said.
"If after tomorrow [Thursday], Tsvangirai does not want to sign, we will
certainly put together a cabinet," the state-owned Herald newspaper quoted
Mugabe as saying after their latest talks in Zambia.
But the MDC has shunned the ultimatum. MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa at the
weekend was quoted as saying that the opposition would not be "stampeded"
into signing a bad agreement. "It's actually better not to have a deal
than to have a very bad deal, as the [MDC] president Tsvangirai says. "We
will not be succumbing to ultimatums, arm-twisting tactics, intimidation and
bullying that Zanu PF has been adopting." The row has therefore assumed
a new dimension.
Mugabe five years ago jettisoned the Commonwealth for castigating his leadership
style and human rights records, which had earned him an indefinite suspension
from the cartel's councils meetings. A fuming Mugabe lambasted CW as the “Club
of rogues.” Closest African peer, then President Olusegun Obasanjo who
painfully was chair-in-office of the Commonwealth at the 2003 heads of governments
meeting(CHOGM) in Abuja, Nigeria could not stop the Zimbabwean leader from
quitting the club of former British territories. Again, whatever the AU and
SADC and opposition stakes, it would not be big surprise if Mugabe throws
caution to the winds and unilaterally selects his cabinet. So, Africa is about
witnessing another still-birth unity government as humanity for now lacks
the guts to quash Mugabe's ping-pong with opposition. Period.
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